§11 FIXED_INCOME_BONDS¶
OVERVIEW¶
The Bonds page is a fixed-income terminal for the US Treasury market. Bond yields drive mortgage rates, growth stocks and the dollar. It shows what the US Treasury market is pricing: the yield on each maturity from one month to thirty years, how the curve has changed over time, and the gaps between maturities that traders use as recession signals. Data comes from official Federal Reserve data, so readings are end-of-day and each card shows its date.
The page opens with a Fed Funds banner and Next FOMC date that anchors the policy rate context above all other data.
FEATURES¶
Treasury Rates¶
Nine UST maturities rendered as individual indicator cards. Each card shows the latest yield, daily change in basis points, and a sparkline. Click any card to expand a history chart above the cards; click again to collapse.
| Tenor | Free | Pro | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Month | — | ✓ | ✓ |
| 3 Month | — | ✓ | ✓ |
| 6 Month | — | ✓ | ✓ |
| 1 Year | — | ✓ | ✓ |
| 2 Year | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| 5 Year | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| 10 Year | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| 20 Year | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| 30 Year | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
Yield Curve Component¶
All nine tenors rendered as a connected line with up to five time overlays:
- Today — current
- 1 Month Ago
- 3 Months Ago
- 1 Year Ago
- 5 Years Ago
Tick each overlay to draw or remove it. Hover a point on the chart for the exact yield and its date. The curve also displays a status tag: NORMAL means longer bonds pay more, FLAT means the gap is small, and INVERTED means short-term bonds pay more than long-term ones.
Inversion Tracker¶
The INVERSION_TRACKER section sits below the curve and contains one card for the 10Y-2Y gap and one for the 3M-10Y gap. Each card shows:
- NORMAL or INVERTED status
- The gap in basis points
- The current streak of days
- How many days of the last five years were inverted
- The deepest reading with its date
A line chart beneath the cards plots both gaps over time. Below zero means inverted.
Key Spreads (Pro+)¶
| Spread | Definition | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y-2Y Spread | 10Y minus 2Y | Below 0 = inverted; classic recession leading indicator |
| 10Y-3M Spread | 10Y minus 3M | Below 0 = inverted; the Fed's preferred curve read |
| 5Y-2Y Spread | 5Y minus 2Y | Middle of the curve shape |
| 30Y-5Y Spread | 30Y minus 5Y | Long-end steepness |
| SOFR (Overnight Funding) | Rate banks pay to borrow cash overnight against Treasuries | A jump means funding is tightening |
TED Spread removed
The TED Spread (3M LIBOR minus 3M T-bill) is no longer shown. LIBOR was retired in 2023. SOFR is now the overnight funding reference rate on this page.
Chart availability
Click a Key Spreads card to see its history. The two derived spreads — 5Y-2Y and 30Y-5Y — do not open a chart.
Real Yields — TIPS (Terminal)¶
| Series | Description |
|---|---|
| 5Y TIPS | 5-year real yield |
| 10Y TIPS | 10-year real yield |
| 30Y TIPS | 30-year real yield |
| Breakeven Inflation (10Y) | 10Y breakeven inflation (nominal minus real) |
Real yield = nominal yield − breakeven inflation. Rising real yields indicate tighter financial conditions independent of inflation prints.
Recession Indicators (Terminal)¶
Displays Inversion Warning or No Inversion for three gaps: 10Y-2Y, 10Y-3M, and 3M-Fed Funds. Composites curve shape, real-yield trajectory, and historical recession lookbacks into a single regime read. Click AI ANALYSIS for a written read on the yield curve spreads; it opens in a side panel.
Bond-Market AI Summary (Pro+)¶
Shown at the top right. Click it for a short written summary of what the current curve is signaling.
HOW TO USE¶
- Open
/bondsfrom the Macro group in the sidebar. The Fed Funds banner renders first with the current policy rate and the date of the next FOMC meeting. - Read the yield curve status tag — NORMAL, FLAT, or INVERTED. Tick Today, 1 Month Ago, 3 Months Ago, 1 Year Ago, and 5 Years Ago to draw up to five lines and see how the curve has moved. Hover a point for the exact yield and date.
- Scroll to the INVERSION_TRACKER to see the 10Y-2Y and 3M-10Y gaps, current inversion streaks, and the historical line chart of both spreads.
- Click any Treasury rate card to expand its history chart above the cards. Click again to collapse.
- Review the Key Spreads section (Pro+) for the spreads the fixed-income market actively watches, including SOFR for overnight funding conditions.
- Check Real Yields / TIPS (Terminal) for financial-conditions context that moves independently of inflation headlines.
- Check Recession Indicators (Terminal) for inversion warnings across three gaps. Click AI ANALYSIS for a written interpretation in the side panel.
- Expand the Bond Market Summary (Pro+) at the top right for a written read on curve signals.
Pre-FOMC checklist
Before a Fed meeting: read where 10Y-2Y sits, note whether the curve has flattened or steepened over the past month, and check the 10Y breakeven for the market's inflation expectation. This gives you the policy-rate context before the statement drops.
Watching the recession trade
A 10Y-2Y inversion sustained for more than six months is the classic recession setup. The re-steepening move — whether a bull-steepener or bear-steepener — is historically the recession-imminent signal, not the inversion itself. Use the INVERSION_TRACKER streak count to monitor duration.
Sizing duration risk
Use the 30Y card to gauge how far long-end yields have moved. The 30-year yield is the primary proxy for mortgage rates, housing affordability, and utility-stock valuations.
TIPS into a hot CPI print
A falling 10Y TIPS yield heading into a hot CPI number often means the market expects the Fed to hike harder, compressing real yields further. Watch TIPS independently of the nominal curve for this signal.
KEYBOARD SHORTCUTS¶
No keyboard shortcuts are assigned to this page.
Note
/bonds is accessible from the Macro group in the sidebar. There is no dedicated shortcut key.
LIMITS AND SCOPE¶
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Data resolution | Daily only — yields update once per day, published the evening of the trading day |
| Month-ago lookback | 1-month, 3-month, 1-year, and 5-year overlays available; not calendar-period-end |
| Holiday shifts | US bond-market closures and global holidays can shift the lookback by one day |
| Yield type | UST cash-market yields only — not futures-implied yields |
| Futures | No ZB / ZN / ZF / ZT futures curve. Compute futures basis externally |
| Credit scope | US Treasuries only — no corporate or municipal bond data |
| Bond ETFs | TLT, IEF, SHY, LQD, AGG, HYG are available via /charts or /scanner, not this page |
| Card date badge | Each card shows the date of its reading. N/A means the data source may be slow — reload in a minute |
| Explain feature | Click Explain on any card for a plain-English interpretation. Requires Pro |
Access by Section¶
| Section | Free | Pro | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yield Curve | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| INVERSION_TRACKER | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| TREASURY_RATES (2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 20Y, 30Y) | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| TREASURY_RATES (1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y) | — | ✓ | ✓ |
| KEY_SPREADS | — | ✓ | ✓ |
| Bond Market Summary (AI) | — | ✓ | ✓ |
| REAL_YIELDS_TIPS | — | — | ✓ |
| Recession Indicators + AI ANALYSIS | — | — | ✓ |
Color Convention¶
Bonds use an inverted color convention:
- A yield moving up prints red — higher yields mean lower prices and bondholder losses.
- A yield moving down prints green.
Spreads follow directional coloring:
- Positive 10Y-2Y (steepening) — green.
- Negative 10Y-2Y (flat or inverted) — red.