§11 FIXED_INCOME_BONDS¶
OVERVIEW¶
The Bonds page is a fixed-income terminal for the US Treasury market. It loads the full yield curve across nine maturities, three key spreads, TIPS real yields, and a recession-indicator panel — all sourced from official Treasury and macro data.
The page opens with a Fed Funds banner that anchors the policy rate context above all other data.
FEATURES¶
Treasury Rates¶
Nine UST maturities rendered as individual indicator cards. Each card shows the latest yield, daily change in basis points, and a sparkline. Click any card to expand a multi-year chart; click again to collapse.
| Tenor | Free | Pro | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Month | — | ✓ | ✓ |
| 3 Month | — | ✓ | ✓ |
| 6 Month | — | ✓ | ✓ |
| 1 Year | — | ✓ | ✓ |
| 2 Year | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| 5 Year | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| 10 Year | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| 20 Year | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| 30 Year | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
Yield Curve Component¶
All nine tenors rendered as a connected line with three time overlays:
- Solid — current
- Faded — 1 month ago (28-day lookback)
- Further faded — 1 year ago (≥ 360-day lookback)
Curve shape changes — flattening, steepening, inversion — are visible at a glance.
Key Spreads (Pro+)¶
| Spread | Definition | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| 2s10s | 10Y minus 2Y | Below 0 = inverted; classic recession leading indicator |
| 10Y-3M | 10Y minus 3M | Below 0 = inverted; the Fed's preferred curve read |
| TED | 3M LIBOR minus 3M T-bill | Spike = rising bank funding stress / counterparty risk |
TED Spread data quality
LIBOR was retired in 2023. TED Spread data quality has degraded since then. Treat it as a historical reference indicator rather than a live signal.
Real Yields — TIPS (Terminal)¶
| Series | Description |
|---|---|
| 5Y TIPS | 5-year real yield |
| 10Y TIPS | 10-year real yield |
| 30Y TIPS | 30-year real yield |
| 10Y Breakeven | 10Y breakeven inflation (nominal minus real) |
Real yield = nominal yield − breakeven inflation. Rising real yields indicate tighter financial conditions independent of inflation prints.
Bond Recession Panel (Terminal)¶
Composites curve shape, real-yield trajectory, and historical recession lookbacks into a single regime read.
Bond-Market AI Summary (Pro+)¶
Collapsed by default. Click the section header on the right to expand a written interpretation of what the current curve is signaling.
HOW TO USE¶
- Open
/bonds. The Fed Funds banner renders first with the current policy rate and recent change. - Read the yield curve. Compare the solid current line against the faded overlays to assess flattening, steepening, or inversion versus a month and year ago.
- Click any Treasury rate card to expand its multi-year chart. Click again to collapse.
- Review the Key Spreads section (Pro+) for the three spreads the fixed-income market actively watches.
- Check Real Yields / TIPS (Terminal) for financial-conditions context that moves independently of inflation headlines.
- Read the Bond Recession Panel (Terminal) for a composited regime assessment.
- Expand the AI summary (Pro+) for a written read on curve signals.
Pre-FOMC checklist
Before a Fed meeting: read where 2s10s sits, note whether the curve has flattened or steepened over the past month, and check the 10Y breakeven for the market's inflation expectation. This gives you the policy-rate context before the statement drops.
Watching the recession trade
A 2s10s inversion sustained for more than six months is the classic recession setup. The re-steepening move — whether a bull-steepener or bear-steepener — is historically the recession-imminent signal, not the inversion itself.
Sizing duration risk
Use the 30Y card to gauge how far long-end yields have moved. The 30-year yield is the primary proxy for mortgage rates, housing affordability, and utility-stock valuations.
TIPS into a hot CPI print
A falling 10Y TIPS yield heading into a hot CPI number often means the market expects the Fed to hike harder, compressing real yields further. Watch TIPS independently of the nominal curve for this signal.
KEYBOARD SHORTCUTS¶
No keyboard shortcuts are assigned to this page.
Note
/bonds is accessible from the §DATA group in the sidebar. There is no dedicated shortcut key.
LIMITS AND SCOPE¶
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Data resolution | Daily only — yields update once per day, published the evening of the trading day |
| Month-ago lookback | Exactly 28 days prior, not calendar-month-end |
| Year-ago lookback | ≥ 360 days prior, not calendar-year-end |
| Holiday shifts | US bond-market closures and global holidays can shift the lookback by one day |
| Yield type | UST cash-market yields only — not futures-implied yields |
| Futures | No ZB / ZN / ZF / ZT futures curve. Compute futures basis externally |
| Credit scope | US Treasuries only — no corporate or municipal bond data |
| Bond ETFs | TLT, IEF, SHY, LQD, AGG, HYG are available via /charts or /scanner, not this page |
Color Convention¶
Bonds use an inverted color convention:
- A yield moving up prints red — higher yields mean lower prices and bondholder losses.
- A yield moving down prints green.
Spreads follow directional coloring:
- Positive 2s10s (steepening) — green.
- Negative 2s10s (flat or inverted) — red.