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§09 SEASONALITY

FOREX_TERMINAL_tapeboard

Some markets show a rhythm by calendar month. Seasonality lays out how a symbol has done in each month over the last 5 or 10 years, so you can see whether a pattern is steady or just a few big years. It is free and works without an account.

HOW TO CHECK A SYMBOL

  1. Click Seasonality in the sidebar.
  2. Type a ticker in the box. It starts on SPY.
  3. Click 5Y or 10Y to choose how many years to use. 10Y is the default.
  4. Click [ LOAD ] or press Enter.

HOW TO READ THE SUMMARY TILES

The four tiles at the top give the headline:

  • BEST_MONTH and WORST_MONTH: the months with the highest and lowest average return, with the return.
  • AVG_ANNUAL_RTN: the average return for a full year.
  • OVERALL_WIN_RATE: how often a month finished higher, on average across all months.

HOW TO READ THE MONTHLY BARS

Start with the MONTH × YEAR · RETURN_HEATMAP grid. Every year runs down the side and every month across the top, with the return in each cell and the year's total in the YR column. Green cells are gains and red cells are losses.

Read the AVG/WIN row at the foot of the grid. It gives each month's average return and how many years out of the total it finished higher.

Below the grid, AVG_MONTHLY_RETURNS draws one bar per month, green for an average gain and red for an average loss. Hover a bar to see the average, win rate, best and worst result and the number of years behind it.

A month that won 8 years out of 10 is more believable than one with a big average that came from a single year.

HOW TO READ THE SEASONAL PATH

The SEASONAL_PATTERN · CUMULATIVE line shows the average path a year takes, day by day, across all the years you chose. Use it to see where in the year the gains and pullbacks tend to sit.

GOOD TO KNOW

  • Averages hide big swings. One extreme year can move a month's average a lot, so check the grid before you rely on it.
  • A month with very few years behind it is not counted toward the overall win rate.
  • Seasonality is a background tilt. Use it with a chart and a plan, not on its own.

IF SOMETHING DOESN'T WORK

  • Nothing shows: click [ LOAD ] after you type a ticker.
  • An error with a retry button: the price feed may be down. Click RETRY.
  • A ticker has few years: a recent listing cannot show 5 or 10 years of months.