The FOMC Dot Plot¶
The FOMC dot plot is a chart published four times a year inside the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections. Each dot represents one committee participant's anonymous forecast for where the federal funds rate should sit at year-end, over the next two to three years, and at the longer run. Markets use the dot distribution to price the expected path of U.S. interest rates between policy meetings.
HOW IT WORKS¶
Up to 19 FOMC participants — seven Board of Governors members and twelve regional Fed presidents — each place one dot per time period at the midpoint of the target range they judge appropriate. The vertical axis shows the federal funds rate in 25-basis-point increments; the horizontal axis shows current year-end, subsequent year-ends, and a "longer run" neutral-rate estimate. Traders read the median dot first: with 19 participants, it is the 10th dot when sorted, and each 25 basis points below the current target implies one expected cut. The spread of dots matters equally — a tight cluster signals conviction, a wide scatter signals genuine disagreement. The longer-run median anchors neutral-rate assumptions and, when it shifts, reprices the entire yield curve.
IN TAPEBOARD¶
Use Tapeboard's macro calendar to flag each quarterly dot plot release as a high-impact event and set pre-release alerts on fed funds futures positions. After the release, compare the new median dots against current futures pricing in the rates dashboard to identify hawkish or dovish divergences at specific maturities. Log your positioning and the market's reaction in the trade journal on projection day to build a cycle-length record of how dot surprises affect your strategies across equities, fixed income, and FX.